The vision of the future keeps growing hazier, promises to become more complex, and our anxieties deepen. In this climate of uncertainty, what can we do to predict the future, make sense of the promises, shape them, and anticipate the challenges?
Knowing the past is a prerequisite for understanding and interpreting the future. This week’s featured book, The Long History of the Future by Nicole Kobie, sheds light on the subject. With engaging storytelling and well-chosen examples from the past, Kobie explains why so many technological breakthroughs, once considered possible, have yet to become part of our lives. She reveals both the tech world’s hopes for the future and the reasons why so many dreams remain unrealized.
From self-driving and flying cars to artificial intelligence and humanoid robots, humanity continues to build the future. And yet our lives remain bound by human limitations. Take smart home technologies, for example: they still struggle to move beyond simple automation. So, when will the future arrive?
The reason new technologies and progress have not reached the desired point is not a lack of effort. Despite extraordinary achievements to date, are even the brightest minds in science falling short of truly carrying us into the future? And what fuels this drive to build the future?
What needs to be understood is the great effort behind these shining successes and the frequent disappointments they entail, so that we can see, learn from them, and understand how we, too, can take part in building the future.
Nicole Kobie explores why the future still hasn’t fully arrived and structures her book The Long History of the Future around eight themes:
- Self-Driving Vehicles
Self-driving vehicles have been part of humanity’s aspirations for a long time. At the 1939 New York World’s Fair, Norman Bel Geddes painted a vivid picture of a future where cars could navigate highways on their own, showcased in General Motors’ “Futurama” exhibit.
Later in the 1980s, German engineer Ernst Dickmanns developed a Mercedes van capable of perceiving and analyzing its surroundings using only cameras. This van managed speeds of up to 130 km/h on German highways, which was an impressive feat given the limited computing power of the time. However, due to limited processing power, Dickmanns’ achievement never found large-scale application.
The author, Kobie, notes that fully integrating self-driving vehicles into daily life will require not just technological advances, but also a shift in how people accept these vehicles and feel safe interacting with them.
Would I get into such a car myself? I’m not sure. We ride trains without seeing the driver, yes—but somehow, a car feels different, especially if you have a personal connection to your car, even a kind of affection. Not me, but some people simply can’t bring themselves to hand over the wheel…
- Artificial Intelligence
Hardly a day goes by without reading a headline about AI, and these developments are fueling growing concerns. These warnings aren’t just coming from critics or opposing activists; they’re voiced by the leaders building the AI themselves. OpenAI’s CEO Sam Altman, Tesla and xAI founder Elon Musk, and Google’s CEO Sundar Pichai have all cautioned about the potential dangers of their own AI products.
As Kobie points out, despite humanity’s fear of AI, we continue to build it. Behind this contradiction lie fundamental human drivers: impatience, ego, and fear of competition. Companies worry that rivals might be the first to possess this powerful technology, which pushes them into a rapid and relentless race.
AI development often follows a familiar cycle of hype, followed by abandonment. When the promises of the technology fail to align with reality, disappointment sets in, and investments decrease. Referred to as the “winter season” in the industry, these periods see many researchers suspend or abandon their work. One reason for this cycle is that AI researchers, to make the field more appealing, highlight its potential benefits to portray the technology as more advanced than it is.
Today, AI is everywhere, powered by vast datasets and deep learning techniques—from voice assistants to image processing systems, numerous innovations have become part of our lives. However, this technological progress brings with it complex problems alongside its great promises. The greater AI’s potential, the deeper the concerns it raises over ethics, privacy, and data security.
To me, AI feels like it’s still in elementary school. Let it graduate, get through adolescence, then we can sit it down for a serious conversation. Still, one never knows… it might not take 17 years to graduate like me; it could finish next year and even show up fully grown before we expect it.
- Robots – The Workforce of the Future or a Marketing Mirage?
Robots are used today in a wide range of fields, from factory production lines to surgical applications and even in homes, and their success is indisputable. Designing them for specific functions, without the need for a human body form, enhances their efficiency. Even so, the dream of human-like robots persists. Boston Dynamics, for example, has developed four-legged, pet-like robots. However, while their movements are meticulously programmed, they cannot act fully independently. As the author notes, although robots now have a certain degree of autonomy, they are still far from operating without external instructions.
Honda’s Asimo robot, with its human-like form and technology developed since the late 1980s, was regarded as a major step forward in robotics. It could carry objects using its hands and, with its facial recognition capabilities, interact with people. However, Asimo failed to become a practical “assistant” suited to everyday human needs. Designed to serve Japan’s elderly population and expected to bring a revolution to social care, the robot was used mainly for demonstrations and entertainment. Elon Musk’s Optimus robot, introduced in 2021, is another prominent example of efforts to produce a humanoid machine. Musk envisions it working in factories and assisting in homes. Nevertheless, it would not be accurate to describe Optimus as a fully autonomous robot.
In the service industry, particularly in some hotels, robots have been used temporarily. However, these initiatives were abandoned due to shortcomings and failures in human–robot interaction. Likewise, in elder care, humanoid robots intended to serve the elderly would almost certainly worsen problems such as social isolation and loneliness.
The slow adoption of robot technologies stems not only from technical barriers but also from societal resistance and ethical concerns. We are still a long way from having fully autonomous, socially accepted robots capable of performing complex tasks.
In the second half of the 1980s, we managed—after considerable effort—to persuade the Swedish firm ABB to adapt one of their automotive robots to pack our holiday chocolates into boxes. It was for our Buklet madlen chocolate box, which is still on the market today.
Another robot-based packaging line we established was intended for our Metro chocolates, imported from Bavaria. It has been operating for 40 years, with only its joints replaced over time.
- Augmented Reality
Kobie recounts one of the most unforgettable tech launches of 2012:
“Google co-founder Sergey Brin walked onto the stage at San Francisco’s Moscone Center dressed in black, wearing a pair of ‘Google Glass’ smart glasses, attracting considerable attention. During the launch, the audience watched live through the device as Brin’s friend JT jumped out of a plane, spectacularly showcasing the product in real time. It was one of the most striking tech presentations of its era. While introducing the new device, Brin remarked, ‘There are 500 ways this device could fail,’ a statement that, unfortunately, proved true.”
Google Glass was innovative in concept, with key features such as being worn like a pair of glasses and controlled via voice commands. However, these very features ended up limiting the user experience: image quality was below expectations, controls were cumbersome, and the device overheated. The biggest barriers to its widespread adoption were its high cost, limited battery life, and, above all, its inability to meet user expectations.
Around the same time, virtual reality (VR) technologies were gaining greater popularity in gaming and entertainment. VR devices allow users to enter a fully virtual world, while augmented reality (AR) offers an experience in which the real world and virtual elements coexist.
Today, development continues, especially on devices in the form of glasses, to make AR technology more widespread. However, even leading companies like Apple have yet to develop a product capable of bringing AR to a wide audience. Ours? It’s sitting in storage at the company.
AR’s difference from the computer lies in its creation without a clear purpose. Computers, by contrast—as their very name suggests—were put to work right away on familiar tasks: managing payroll, keeping accounting ledgers, maintaining bank records, and even writing and printing them. They evolved directly in response to market demand.
- Cyborgs and Brain–Computer Interfaces
Kobie recounts a striking experience at the 2010 CeBIT trade fair in Germany, one that revealed how the human brain could communicate with the digital world. She encountered intendiX, a brain–computer interface (BCI) developed by g.tec, and witnessed how thoughts could be transformed into digital commands. It was a moment that opened the door to imagining a world where people could control computers using nothing but their minds.
In the 2000s, BCI technology emerged as a communication tool for individuals with paralysis. In 2004, an implant placed in the brain of ALS patient Matt Nagle allowed him to change television channels using only his thoughts, a breakthrough that demonstrated the profound difference BCIs could make for those with limited motor function.
Brain–computer interfaces offer a vast range of promising possibilities, particularly in medicine, such as restoring mobility to paralyzed individuals and enabling direct communication between the brain and the digital world. Applications such as BCI implants to ease the symptoms of neurodegenerative conditions like Parkinson’s disease and dementia further underscore the importance of this technology in the medical field. Moreover, Elon Musk’s Neuralink pushes the vision further, merging the human brain directly with artificial intelligence to create deeper links between people and the digital world.
Kobie suggests that advances in BCIs and bionic limbs have the potential not only to treat diseases but also to enhance human capabilities.
I’m not sure how sincere we are when we talk about robots in this sense. From what I’ve grasped, there are indeed robots capable of handling tasks and evolving. But perhaps what we’re looking for are servants we can employ—and exploit—in every possible way.
- Flying Cars
Flying cars have long been a fixture of science fiction and popular culture. The idea of gliding above city skylines, much like in The Jetsons, has shaped many people’s visions of the future. And it’s not only dreamers who have chased this vision; engineers have too. Since the 1950s, engineering curiosity has driven the development of flying vehicle prototypes. Some vehicles received regulatory approval, with flying cars being offered for sale during brief periods. Yet they never secured a permanent place in daily life. Why? Kobie points to practical barriers, steep costs, and technical challenges.
In recent years, the dream has resurfaced through electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles (eVTOLs). Companies like Lilium aim to replace helicopters and ease urban traffic congestion. Their quiet operation and eco-friendly design improve their chances of acceptance in city centers, while their potential to cut carbon emissions could make them a more sustainable mode of transport.
Still, the path to mass adoption is strewn with hurdles, ranging from technical limitations and inadequate battery technology to the complexity of managing low-altitude air traffic.
Flying cars may not create a future where everyone pilots their craft through the skies, but they could significantly transform our transportation habits by offering modern, environmentally friendly air mobility solutions for public transport.
Then again, more than a century after the invention of the helicopter, it still hasn’t become widely used, so I doubt people will readily embrace flying cars either.
- Hyperloop
Hyperloop has made headlines in recent years, both for its potential and its historical roots. Elon Musk’s 2013 white paper propelled it further into the spotlight. His proposal envisioned a low-pressure tube system using magnetic levitation to propel pods at speeds of up to 1,000 km/h, dramatically improving intercity travel times and efficiency. However, whether Hyperloop is a product of science fiction or a truly viable technology remains a debated topic. Musk argues this technology could outperform planes on shorter routes while being more energy efficient. But achieving this would require overcoming significant engineering, safety, and cost challenges.
The need for substantial infrastructure for Hyperloop is obvious, making it difficult to attract investors and secure government support. More time and resources are still needed to assess whether the technology is practically feasible.
I doubt many individuals would be willing to volunteer their bodies as test subjects for such an approach.
- Smart Cities
Kobie shares her experiences from her participation in a British trade mission to Malaysia and Singapore in 2016, where he observed the first smart city projects. These projects were marketed as the cities of the future. However, when it came to implementation, they failed to reach the ambitious goals set for them, encountering numerous challenges. Let’s examine these projects together:
Forest City: Developed by Malaysia in partnership with Chinese investors, Forest City was promoted as a technologically advanced, sustainable metropolis. With luxurious living spaces, it was boldly introduced as the “city of the future.” It was promised that the city’s smart systems would include buildings with automatic glass repair and self-watering green walls. Yet, the pandemic’s disruptions, financial fluctuations, and political obstacles severely hindered the project’s progress. The city failed to reach its goal of housing 700,000 people, with only a few thousand residents living there by 2019. The initially ambitious population planning quickly became an unrealistic expectation. Over time, Forest City took on the eerie atmosphere of a near ghost town instead of having a large population.
South Korea’s “Ubiquitous City” Experiment: In South Korea, the city of Songdo was developed under the nation’s “ubiquitous city” vision. The city was equipped with features like internet-connected trash cans, smart traffic lights, and phone-controlled lighting and heating systems. Songdo aimed to serve as a smart city that would simplify people’s lives. Unfortunately, it also failed to garner the expected attention. Despite its advanced technological infrastructure, the city failed to attract business investors and citizens alike. The technological innovations at its inception, once groundbreaking, quickly became mundane as smartphones became widespread, and this made it hard for Songdo to draw significant investment. The population was limited to only a quarter of its intended size.
Masdar City: A Ghost City in the Desert: Located just outside Abu Dhabi, Masdar City was an ambitious project built from scratch, claiming to be completely carbon neutral. It was equipped with sustainable solutions, such as renewable energy sources and autonomous personal transport pods. However, as costs began to rise, some technological solutions were shelved, and many of the planned smart systems were not implemented. As a result, Masdar City remained an incomplete city. Today, it is still referred to as a “green ghost city,” home to only a few hundred students, far from achieving its initial sustainability goals.
Kobie highlights that smart city projects often prioritize technology while neglecting certain aspects, such as the natural growth and development of communities. As a result, these projects fail to attract the intended population and miss out on the investment they sought. Moreover, with the rapid pace of technological advancement, the innovations within these projects quickly become “normalized”, leading people to favor “traditional” cities where such features are already in place.
The author asserts that a successful smart city is not only about technology but also about sustainability and social benefit, citing Barcelona and Medellín as examples. In Barcelona, trash cans signal the center when they are full, ensuring a more efficient waste collection process. In Medellín, new libraries, parks, and schools are built in the poorest areas to promote social equality. Rather than investing effort in building a city from scratch, I believe it is more efficient and beneficial to improve our existing cities with technology.
Who is Building the Future?
In the final section of the book, Kobie delves into the vision of Astro Teller, who leads innovative projects at Google X Labs. Teller emphasizes that the future will be shaped not just by technological innovations but also by the values and purposes these innovations are developed to serve. According to him, many technological advancements, driven by the cost pressures companies face and the need for rapid results, focus on short-term profitability rather than long-term, sustainable solutions. These projects are often rushed to completion, which hampers deeper, human-centered thinking about the future.
At this point, Kobie raises the question “Who is building the future?” and elaborates on it. According to her, Silicon Valley billionaires decide which problems technology will address, prioritizing their perspectives and priorities. In this process, inclusive perspectives are often lacking. The author highlights that a more diverse technology ecosystem, drawing from different life experiences, has the potential to produce more equitable solutions.
Discussions about future technologies are often shaped by hope, imagination, and innovation. According to Nicole Kobie, while every innovation may promise a brighter future, there’s no guarantee it will positively impact human lives. That’s why questions regarding who is developing these innovations and what purposes they serve—essentially, the vision behind both the work and the individual—should also be part of the public discourse.
Don’t you think that, rather than associating the building of the future with strategy or even conspiracy theories, we should examine how and why it appeals to people?
Governments, or the will of their officials, control state budgets. The space race, arms race, and nuclear weapons manufacturing race are still ongoing. The funds allocated to these projects are, in turn, driving innovation and investment in these areas. While these may be futile efforts, like the space race or nuclear arms, they have nonetheless yielded many side benefits for technology.
Hollywood, too, has played a considerable role in the spread of these misguided, rampant ideas. I call them “fairy tales for grown-ups.” But once believers come around—alas, the money’s lost, never found.
In the end, we should mind not the one who speaks, but the one pulling the strings, right?
(*) Kobie N. (2024). The Long History of the Future: Why tomorrow’s technology still isn’t here, Bloomsbury Sigma, p.368. https://www.amazon.com/Long-History-Future-tomorrows-technology
Note: This open-source article does not require copyright and can be quoted by citing the author.
